Theory & Speculation

Here are a few examples of current situations where a thing could go one of two ways, and I genuinely don't know which way it will go, yet I'm placing a bet on

If there’s one thing investment managers love, it’s pretending to be philosophers; if there’s another, it’s pretending to be generals. While nobody should confu

Old Ideas China Tech I’m mostly off of this idea. I sold my Alibaba position and am holding, but not adding to, my Tencent and Naspers ADRs. I just don’t see a

The Covid-19 crisis chapter of stock market history has come to a close. Unfortunately, its end is pretty clearly marked by a fresh new crisis. This one also me

In an attempt to be more disciplined in my investing, I'm adopting the following approach before making any significant moves in my investments: Consider the ma

Shown above are the total returns for a market timing model, the S&P 500, and 10-year Treasury bonds from 2005 to mid-2020. The model decides on the first o

Most of the time, you want to buy businesses with “moats”. A moat protects a business from competition, and allows it to earn returns on capital over and above

The 2010s are ending in a few days. This chunk of time happens to be the first full set of 10 years in which I participated in the US economy as a normal workin

Someday in your kids’ lifetime, one of the most powerful companies in the world will be controlled by the board of a charitable organization. Ironically, it’s a

With the US government bond yield curve fully inverted, and a trade war with China escalating in fits and starts, it seems like a good time to explore some othe

If you invest in individual stocks, I would bet that at any given moment, you have a pretty good idea of how your portfolio is doing for the year, both in absol

There are two ways to think about Netflix’s valuation. To oversimplify dramatically, one is “It’s P/E is 100, and everyone already has Netflix, so it’s way over

“If you keep your eye on the profit, you’re going to skimp on the product. But if you focus on making really great products, then the profits will follow.” -Ste

When I started following the stock market roughly 10 years ago, I was under the impression that technical analysis was complete nonsense, and what stock prices

The Yield Curve! It's the latest in a growing list of things to worry about if you are long US equities. In particular, you may have read that when the yield cu